25+ Years training experience in · Energy · Construction · Technology · Finance

RISK MODELS
THAT DRIVE
REAL
DECISIONS

Quantitative consulting that embeds probabilistic rigour and AI-powered analysis directly into how your organisation plans, estimates, and governs complex projects.

Discuss Your Project What We Do
Manuel Carmona
Manuel Carmona
Senior Risk Consultant · MBA · PMI-RMP®
✓ 25+ years in quantitative risk analysis across EU, Middle East, and APAC
✓ Former EMEA Consulting Manager at Palisade — risk software specialists
✓ Monte Carlo modelling, cost estimation, schedule risk and portfolio QRA
✓ AI-integrated workflows: LLMs, agents, and decision-support systems
✓ Published author — Taylor & Francis, 2026. Trilingual EN / ES / FR
PMI-RMP Authorised Instructor PMI AI Expert
25+
Years of experience
3
Continents served
5
Industry sectors
3
Languages: EN · ES · FR
Consulting services

Rigorous analysis.
Practical outcomes.

Each engagement is designed around your specific project context — not off-the-shelf frameworks. The goal is always the same: risk insights that decision-makers can understand, trust, and act upon.

📊
Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)
Full probabilistic risk analysis for cost, schedule, and integrated project models. From distribution selection and correlation modelling to P50/P80 reporting and executive narrative — built in Excel or specialist tools.
Monte Carlo Cost QRA Schedule Risk Sensitivity
🌳
Decision Analysis & Decision Trees
Structuring complex decisions under uncertainty using Expected Monetary Value, scenario analysis, and multi-branch decision trees. Particularly valuable for bid/no-bid decisions, investment staging, and risk response selection.
EMV Decision Trees Scenario Analysis
🤖
AI-Integrated Risk Workflows
Embedding AI language models and agents into your existing risk processes — from AI-assisted risk identification and register management to automated reporting, early-warning systems, and AI-powered executive briefings.
LLM Integration AI Reporting Automation
🏗️
Cost Estimation & Cost Control
Probabilistic cost models for capital projects — from early-stage estimates through to detailed bottom-up QRA. Includes basis-of-estimate documentation, contingency justification, and owner/contractor alignment support.
CapEx Contingency AACEI Aligned
📋
Risk Register Design & Governance
Building risk registers that actually support decisions — not just compliance. Covers register structure, Cause–Risk–Effect statements, scoring calibration, bias correction, and integration with project governance and reporting cycles.
PMI-RMP® Risk Governance Bias Correction
📈
Portfolio Risk & Strategic Advisory
Risk analysis across project portfolios — aggregating exposure, identifying concentration risk, and supporting investment decisions with defensible quantitative evidence. Tailored for PMO leaders, CFOs, and boards.
Portfolio QRA Strategic Risk Executive Reporting
What clients achieve

Outcomes that
matter to
your organisation

🎯
Decisions grounded in evidence, not instinct
Replace gut-feel contingencies with defensible P80 estimates your board and funders will trust.
⚠️
Risks surfaced before they become problems
Probabilistic models and AI-assisted monitoring detect exposure early — when there is still time to act.
💰
Contingency that reflects reality
Stop over-reserving or under-reserving. Monte Carlo output gives you the number the data supports — and the story to explain it.
📅
Schedule risk quantified and communicated
Integrated cost-schedule models show where delay risk concentrates — and what the P80 completion date actually is.
🤝
Alignment between risk teams and leadership
AI-generated executive narratives translate complex probabilistic outputs into language decision-makers understand and act on.
⚙️
Risk processes that embed into daily work
Not a report delivered once. Workflows, templates, and governance mechanisms your team can run independently after the engagement.
🔍
Bias and blind spots identified and corrected
Cognitive bias in qualitative assessment is systematic and predictable. Structured calibration and AI cross-checks reduce it significantly.
📊
Portfolio exposure visible in one view
Aggregate risk across multiple projects — see where concentration risk lives and where your real capital exposure is.
Industries served
Deep sector context matters in risk modelling. The same probabilistic method applied without domain knowledge produces the wrong answer.
⚡
Energy & Utilities
Oil & gas, renewables, power generation, grid infrastructure
🏗️
Construction & Infrastructure
Capital projects, EPC contracts, civil infrastructure
💻
Technology & Software
IT transformation, digital programmes, platform deployment
🏭
Manufacturing & Industry
Capital investment, operational risk, supply chain uncertainty
💼
Finance & Private Equity
Investment appraisal, portfolio risk, due diligence support
Organisations worked with
Repsol
Wartsila
Lundin
SABIC
Ramboll
Moeve
Stedin
Cinven
How an engagement works

From first call
to working model

Every engagement is scoped to your specific situation. Most projects move from initial conversation to first deliverable within two to three weeks.

1
Discovery Call
30-minute conversation to understand your project context, data availability, decision timeline, and what a successful outcome looks like for your team.
2
Scope & Proposal
A clear written scope — deliverables, methodology, timeline, and fees. No ambiguity about what you are buying or what you will receive.
3
Model & Analysis
Collaborative working sessions with your team. Models are built transparently so your people understand every assumption and can interrogate every output.
4
Handover & Support
Documented models, executive outputs, and a handover session. Your team owns the work. Follow-up support available as decisions evolve.
What clients say

Results that
speak for
themselves

★★★★★
Manuel transformed how we present risk to our board. We went from heat maps nobody believed to Monte Carlo outputs that actually changed how contingency was approved.
SR
S. Rodríguez
Risk Manager · Construction Company
★★★★★
For the first time, I had a cost forecast I could defend at investment committee level — with a P80 number backed by a model I could explain in plain language.
JA
J. Al-Rashidi
CFO · Oil & Gas Company
★★★★★
The AI-integrated risk register Manuel built for our capital programme saved our team hours every week and flagged a schedule exposure three months before it would have surfaced in a manual review.
TM
T. Marchetti
Senior Engineer · Manufacturing Firm
Start a conversation

LET'S TALK
ABOUT YOUR
PROJECT

Every engagement starts with a no-obligation conversation. Describe your project, your data, and what decision you are trying to support — and we will tell you honestly whether quantitative analysis will help.

Reply within one business day
Available in English, Spanish, and French
On-site or remote engagements across Europe and beyond
No retainer required — project-based or advisory arrangements
📧 info@edytraining.com
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